He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. <> “Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall–they are the real distorting prisms of human nature.” Chief among them: “Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature.” Now consider the typical stock market report: “Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production.” Sigh. This site does not store any files on its server. Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility ebook epub/pdf/mobi/azw3. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. ebook, Or, as he puts it, “History does not crawl, it jumps.” Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls “Mediocristan,” while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of “Extremistan.”, In full disclosure, I’m a long admirer of Taleb’s work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book.   mobi, 3 0 obj A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. . %���� 2 0 obj Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. PDF, Previous post: The Crossing (Harry Bosch), © 2015 Free Kindle Books – All Rights Reserved The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility.

He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. 4 0 obj “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and … We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. .

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